Principle Of Probability

In John MacArthur’s book, How To Get The Most From God’s Word, I was excited to read about the principle of probability in validating prophecy.  He mentioned that the strongest objective argument for the validity of Scripture comes from fulfilled Bible prophecy.  He added that the principle of probability could objectively prove the validity of the prophecy if the event occurs exactly as prophesied with incredible odds.

John MacArthur is a well known cessationist.  Though he is correct that prophecy in the primary sense has ceased¸ I believe he errs in not believing in the possibility of prophecy in the lesser sense at all.  (Please see footnote.)  Let me explain.  I believe prophecy as in special revelation in the Bible is complete, but the gift of prophecy in the lesser sense (such as the prophecy of a global famine by Agabus in Acts 11:27-30) is still possible. This type of one-off message must not be confused with the ridiculous frequent fortune telling practiced by some.

For such message to be valid as prophecy in the lesser sense, it must have incredible odds of probability to start with.  For example, if I prophesy an earthquake this year in a particular country like Japan, the probability is actually pretty high, say 50%.  The odds of difficulty will be compounded if I prophesy the month, the day, the city, the exact building that will collapse and finally subsequent visions to reinforce the first vision and the message as well.  By then, the odds will be so incredible that when all these details occur according to the prophecy, it is incomprehensible to deny it is not a message from God.

Just a few prophecies concerning our Lord would yield incredible odds of probability which could only proved Him to be the Messiah – born in Bethlehem, of the tribe of Judah, raised in Nazareth, betrayed with 30 pieces of silver, died on the cross, and men casting lots over his garments.

Agabus’s prophecy of a global famine will not twist the doctrine of salvation a bit and is inconsequential to Christian spiritual growth in his or her daily walk with Christ. So the significance probably was something which would affect the ordinary life of the Judea Christians at that time.   In this particular case, the famine brought hardship on the Judea Christians which the Antioch Christians were able to help by preparing such relief for them upon learning of a coming global famine.  They sent the relief later through Paul and Barnabas to the elders in Judea.

Footnote :

“…in the primary sense of prophets, as vehicles of direct and fresh revelation, it seems we must say that this charisma is no longer given. There is no longer anyone in the church who may dare to say, “The word of the Lord came to me, saying…” or “Thus says the Lord.” It has been argued, however, that prophets may be used in other and lesser senses. Some think there may be men today like the prophet Agabus (Acts 11:28; 21-10-11) whose function is not to add to revelation but to foretell some future event. This is possible. But both church history and personal experience make me cautious…”  – John Stott, Baptism and Fullness.

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All Israel Shall Be Saved

Rom 11:25-28
25 Lest you be wise in your own sight, I do not want you to be unaware of this mystery, brothers: a partial hardening has come upon Israel, until the fullness of the Gentiles has come in. 26 And in this way all Israel will be saved, as it is written, “The Deliverer will come from Zion, He will banish ungodliness from Jacob”…28 As regards the gospel, they are enemies for your sake. But as regards election, they are beloved for the sake of their forefathers.

I have always wondered why the Jews do not believe in Jesus as the Messiah over the centuries. That is because they believe in only ONE advent of the Messiah to establish His glorious reign on earth which is prophesied in the OT.   Even when our Lord appeared to the apostles speaking much about the Kingdom of God during the forty days after His Resurrection,  the apostles still asked for the specific time that God will restore the kingdom of Israel.  A clear evidence of the very consuming hope in the psyche of the Jews that one day,  the Messiah will restore the Kingdom of Israel and reign in glory as prophesied in the Scriptures.  Acts 1: 3-8.

(But Christians believe in 2 comings – the First Advent and the Second Coming – so that all prophecies of the initial suffering and the eventual glorious reign of the Messiah on earth are not contradicted.)

They can only believe in ONE advent of the Messiah in glorious reign. And not a crucified Messiah which is a stumbling block to them. 1 Cor 1:23.

So when the fullness of the Gentiles has come and Christ Jesus finally returns to reign on earth for 1000 years, the nation will see that the Messiah has finally come to reign and BELIEVE in Him. To them, it is the PROPHESIED COMING finally and not the first advent of a crucified Messiah.

I believe ALL ISRAEL does not mean every single Jew. It means the majority of the nation. They are still saved by faith alone in Christ Jesus.

2009

Why Pre-Tribulation Rapture Seems More Plausible

I have always wondered why the Jews do not believe in Jesus as the Messiah over the centuries.  That is because they believe in only one coming in the advent of the Messiah to establish His glorious reign on earth which is prophesied.  But Christians believe in 2 comings – the First Advent and the Second Coming – so that all prophecies of the initial suffering and the eventual glorious reign of the Messiah on earth are not contradicted.

Similarly, can the post-tribulation position be holding out zealously that the Rapture and the Second Coming is one single event instead of 2 separate events ?

As I studied the different positions, I separated common argument tricks such as red herring, argumentum ad hominem, straw man and weak analogy argument from each position.

I have noticed the evidence supporting the arguments against pre-tribulation rapture in favor of post-tribulation are mostly Scriptural references that clearly state that Jesus our Lord will return after the Tribulation and that belief is also held by the pre-tribulation rapture believers since they believe in the 2 event scenario,  and interpreting into the Greek text of the verses.  Interpretation into the Greek text of verses should only be the last evidence as it is not as weighty as clear Scriptural references on the possibility of the 2 event scenario.

The pre-tribulation rapture seems more plausible to me after weighing the evidence, considering the main arguments against each position, and taking the position that best include all Scriptural references with the “least” contradiction.    I now believe in 2 separate events – the Rapture and the Second Coming – instead of one so that all prophecies concerning these events are not contradicted.

1 Thess 4:16-17 and 1 Cor 15:51-52 clearly refer to a Rapture in the future.

I will start from the weaker evidence to the stronger evidence to explain my position in a pre-tribulation rapture.

  1. The first evidence is based on imminency.  Many Scriptural verses exhort that Christians should be looking for the Lord to come at any time.  If the church has to go through the tribulation, then we cannot be looking at Christ our Lord coming at any moment.  He cannot come for at least 7 years, since we are not in the Tribulation now, and when it comes, it will last for 7 years first.
  2. The Church is not mentioned in Rev 6 to Rev 19 as being on earth. It is strange that Apostle John did not mention the church as he described the tribulation of Daniel’s 70 weeks and the church’s role.  Instead the 144,000 Jews from the 12 tribes were mentioned.
  3. The Epistles have no specific warning and advice for the church to prepare for the kind of tribulation found in Rev 6 to 18. They have vigorous warning on spiritual apostasy, calamities and present persecution unlike that of the Tribulation but strangely silent on such traumatic event.
  4. Several verses promising believers that they will be kept out of God’s wrath will be contradicted as many martyrs die during the Tribulation. Rev 3:10; 1 Thess 1:10.
  5. (2 Thess 2: 7-9. the mystery of lawlessness is already at work. Only he who now restrains it will do so until he is out of the way. And then the lawless one will be revealed, whom the Lord Jesus will kill with the breath of his mouth and bring to nothing by the appearance of his coming. The coming of the lawless one is by the activity of Satan with all power and false signs and wonders…)   The Holy Spirit who now restrains lawlessness will be out of the way before the Lawless One is revealed.  That implies the true church in which the Holy Spirit indwells has to be out of the way as well.
  6. If the Rapture and the post-tribulation coming of our Lord is one event just prior to the start of the Millennium, coinciding with all the goats being removed and all sheep given glorified bodies in the judgment of sheep and goats,  then who will populate the earth and rebel with Satan against our Lord at the end of the Millennium ?  It only make sense if the Rapture happens before the Tribulation and there are new believers during the Tribulation who survive it when the Lord returns with His saints with glorified bodies to reign at the start of the Millennium, and their future descendants are still capable of sin during the Millennium. (Isa 65:20; Rev 20:7-10).
  7. The events at Christ’s post-tribulation coming differs completely from that of the Rapture. The most detailed texts in Matt 24 and Rev 19 do not mention Rapture at all.
Rapture    1 Thess 4:13-18 Christ’s Post-tribulation Coming 1 Cor 15:50-58
Scenario of coming Christ comes in the air and returns to heaven.  1 Thess 4:17 Christ comes to the earth to dwell and reign.  Matt 25:31-32
Gathering of believers Christ gathers believers. 1 Thess 4:16-17 Angels gather the elect.  Matt 24:31
Reward or Judgment Christ comes to reward. 1 Thess 4:17. Christ comes to judge.  Matt 25:31-46.
Resurrection Resurrection is prominent.  1 Thess 4:15-16. Resurrection is not mentioned.
Departure of believers and non believers Believers depart from the earth.  1 Thess 4:15-17. Unbelievers are taken away from the earth.  Matt 24:37-41.
Believers and non believers remaining on earth Unbelievers remain on earth while believers are raptured and resurrected. Believers remain on earth.  Matt 25:34.
Christ’s Kingdom on earth Not mentioned during Rapture Christ came to set up His kingdom on earth.  Matt 25:31-34.
Glorified bodies Believers receive glorified bodies.  1 Cor 15:51-57 No one receive glorified body at this second coming.

*Evidence is mostly gleaned from the article “Why A Pretribulation Rapture ?” by Richard Mayhue and the Believers’ Bible Commentary on 2 Thess 3.

Regardless of holding whichever position, it is inconsequential to our common salvation.   Our Lord only wants us to stay watchful, eagerly await His Return and care for His people meanwhile.

The 7 Year Tribulation period will be unprecedented in terms of terrible distress.  Escaping this wrath does not mean we will not face many lesser tribulations, which will increase exponentially in intensity, from the beginning of birth pains to the arrival of Antichrist on center stage.

Postscript 1 :  For further reading

https://faith.edu/faith-news/the-inhabitants-of-the-millennium-and-the-timing-of-the-rapture-part-1/

Postscript 2 :  Another piece of evidence supporting the pre tribulation rapture.

In Rev 6:9,  we read that the martyred saints are still souls and in Rev 4:4 and 4:10, we read that there are 24 elders before the throne of God.  It is only after rapture do saints have glorified bodies.  The plausible explanation is that the elders, who are resurrected saints,  will be able to appear before the throne with glorified bodies while the martyred saints during the Great Tribulation are still souls waiting for the second coming of our Lord to avenge them.

Postscript 3 :   More explanation by eminent professors.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ANUhVvtW08k

biblicaltimeline

Training In Righteousness

James 1:2-4 NASB

2 Consider it all joy, my brethren, when you encounter various trials, 3 knowing that the testing of your faith produces endurance. 4 And let endurance have its perfect result, so that you may be perfect and complete, lacking in nothing.

Heb 12:7-11 NIV

Endure hardship as discipline; God is treating you as his children. For what children are not disciplined by their father? If you are not disciplined—and everyone undergoes discipline—then you are not legitimate, not true sons and daughters at all. Moreover, we have all had human fathers who disciplined us and we respected them for it. How much more should we submit to the Father of spirits and live! 10 They disciplined us for a little while as they thought best; but God disciplines us for our good, in order that we may share in his holiness. 11 No discipline seems pleasant at the time, but painful. Later on, however, it produces a harvest of righteousness and peace for those who have been trained by it.

When we face hardship or trials, we are exhorted to endure.   We are to treat such trials as divine discipline and to expect them if we are sons of the living God.  If we endure, eventually we will gain peace and a harvest of righteousness having trained by it.

God’s Revealed Will for us is to conform us to be like His Son (Rom 8:28-29).   And so His discipline trains us in this manner to bear fruit of the Spirit :

  1.  Personal Trials.   Train us in love, peace and joy.
  2.  Our Neighbor’s Trials.  Train us in gentleness, kindness and goodness towards them.
  3.  Testing and Temptation.  Train us in patience, faithfulness and self-control.

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Emptying The Gospel Of Its Power

There are presently 2 huge diabolical movements of deceiving the elect.   One is promoting a different gospel and has called itself the Grace Reformation.   The other is promoting a different Jesus and has called itself the New Apostolic Reformation.

The false prophets in both these movements will understandably masquerade themselves well as servants of righteousness and will lure away many professing believers as prophesized.  They should be very skillful in deception by disguising themselves as apostles of Christ.   Not surprising that they really call themselves Apostles in the New Apostolic Reformation as stated in 2 Cor 11:13-15.   And since they are so skillful in deception, the defense of their authenticity by their followers and sympathizers  – that they are humble, preach good biblical sermons on grace and do a lot of good to help the young people for example – surely fall short.  A “Berean” Christian should watch out for their doctrine of salvation and Christology instead.  For the master of these false prophets, the devil, surely will not promote the true gospel and true Jesus.

It is one thing to believe in the sovereign will of God that He still give spiritual gifts today and I sincerely believe;  but quite another to believe that signs and wonders are a necessity to share the gospel.   The following Scripture in Luke 16:30-31 dispels that premise.

Luke 16:30-31

30 And he said, ‘No, father Abraham, but if someone goes to them from the dead, they will repent.’ 31 He said to him, ‘If they do not hear Moses and the Prophets, neither will they be convinced if someone should rise from the dead.’

1 Cor 1:17

17 For Christ did not send me to baptize but to preach the gospel, and not with words of eloquent wisdom, lest the cross of Christ be emptied of its power.

As Paul was even careful not to empty the gospel of its power by eloquent wisdom like what the hyper grace false teachers did,  how much more would it be through signs and wonders ?

Our Lord had warned specifically in Matt 24:24 that false prophets will arise and perform great signs and wonders to lead astray even the elect in the last days and will He confuse the elect even more by empowering many to do signs and wonders as a necessity to share the gospel  as well ?

Though we have to be wary of the New Apostolic Reformation prophets who promote these signs and wonders as THE means of sharing the gospel emptying the gospel of its power and twisting the doctrine of Christology in the process, we should not dismiss or despise that God can still give such spiritual gifts today for certain unique circumstances on the other hand.   We are exhorted not to despise but to test these spirits.    1 John 4:1.  1 Thess 5:20-21.

Martin Luther, the champion of sola scriptura, said this, “The signs here spoken of (Mark 16:17-18) are to be used according to need.  When the need arises, and the gospel is hard pressed, then we must definitely do these signs, before we allow the gospel to be maligned and knocked down.”  –  Believer’s Bible Commentary.

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Trials And Temptation

Although both trial and temptation are translated from the same Greek word “peirasmos”,  it is a world of difference between them.

Trial usually refers to morally neutral events that will affect us both emotionally and physically such as death of a loved one,  accident,  illness, failure, disappointment, unemployment, betrayal or rejection.  While temptation usually refers to evil desires in us, such as fornication or covetousness, waiting to be birthed into sin if one capitulates  to the conceived desire.

The following table highlighting the difference is given  by Pastor Mark Wheeler of New England.

https://wheelsms.wordpress.com/2013/05/01/of-trials-temptations/

trials-temptations

 

Many well meaning Christians have wrongly used the verse 1 Cor 10:13 to comfort those undergoing trials that God will not let them suffer such trials beyond which they cannot handle.  The verse refers to temptation and not trial.   And concerning temptation,  I am sure God will provide a way of escape through various means such as the convicting work of the Holy Spirit and His Word,  but it is one own’s volition if he or she allows the sin to be birthed.  James 1:13-15.

(1 Cor 10:13.  No temptation has overtaken you except what is common to mankind. And God is faithful; he will not let you be tempted beyond what you can bear. But when you are tempted, he will also provide a way out so that you can endure it.)

It is a fact that some believers have succumbed to taking their own lives when trial such as depression has taken a terrible toll on them.

Here are some of my thoughts concerning whether these believers are saved.  And you may form your own conclusion.

  1. Samson who committed suicide was listed among the heroes of faith in Heb 11.
  2. Suicide is the sin of murder (self murder) – I see taking the life of another is the same as taking the life of self. Salvation is not dependent on sin accounting or based on the last sin committed.
  3. Trials are morally neutral events affecting us emotionally and physically.

Church Discipline

1 Cor 5:9-13

I wrote to you in my letter not to associate with sexually immoral people— 10 not at all meaning the people of this world who are immoral, or the greedy and swindlers, or idolaters. In that case you would have to leave this world. 11 But now I am writing to you that you must not associate with anyone who claims to be a brother or sister but is sexually immoral or greedy, an idolater or slanderer, a drunkard or swindler. Do not even eat with such people. 12 What business is it of mine to judge those outside the church? Are you not to judge those inside? 13 God will judge those outside. “Expel the wicked person from among you.”

St Paul had given clear advice in the Scriptures on how to deal with professing believers who are immoral, greedy or are swindlers or idolaters and are unrepentant.  He had also taken preventive action in warning Timothy and the Corinthian church of certain so-called brothers who were causing great harm to his ministry. 1 Tim 1:20; 2 Tim 4:14.

Ex-communication instructed by Paul was necessary to protect the Corinthian church when these sinful believers were unrepentant after exhausting confrontation of sin privately and before the church with evidence and witnesses, and sincere attempts to restore them.  But ex-communication as a last resort is not an end in itself when Paul also instructed on possible future restoration and saving their souls.

The following sermon by Pastor Steven Cole gives an excellent overview of church discipline – the right steps to confront and to restore; and the necessity of ex-communication as a last resort in protecting the church.

http://www.fcfonline.org/content/1/sermons/081306M.pdf

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Thorn In The Flesh

2 Cor 12:7-9

7 So to keep me from becoming conceited because of the surpassing greatness of the revelations, a thorn was given me in the flesh, a messenger of Satan to harass me, to keep me from becoming conceited. 8 Three times I pleaded with the Lord about this, that it should leave me. 9 But he said to me, “My grace is sufficient for you, for my power is made perfect in weakness.” Therefore I will boast all the more gladly of my weaknesses, so that the power of Christ may rest upon me.

Just before this Scriptural passage, Paul wrote about having the miraculous experience of being caught up to the third heaven.

It is natural human weakness to be conceited when one has great miraculous experience, visions and revelations, even Paul was not an exception.

I believe the messenger of the enemy was not a physical infirmity or disease but a real person in either a demonic being, or servants of the enemy in the church masquerading as servants of righteousness like the “super apostles”, undermining his ministry. Or someone like Alexander who did great harm to his ministry whom he had to warn Timothy and the church.

And it is important to note that God was the One who sent the messenger of the enemy to harass and humble Paul for the very purpose of training him not to be conceited.

In what way was Paul conceited ?

How did Paul plead with God to remove the harassment ?   Is it by pleading that God would bind the enemy when He was the One who sent in the first place?   How did the enemy’s messenger harass him ?

It must be so troubling a trial that Paul had to plead 3 times.  But nevertheless when the Lord told him that His grace was sufficient for him,  Paul eventually realized that a successful ministry rested on a weak servant in order for Christ’s power to manifest even more in him.

1 Cor 1:27-31

27 But God chose what is foolish in the world to shame the wise; God chose what is weak in the world to shame the strong; 28 God chose what is low and despised in the world, even things that are not, to bring to nothing things that are, 29 so that no human being might boast in the presence of God. 30 And because of him you are in Christ Jesus, who became to us wisdom from God, righteousness and sanctification and redemption, 31 so that, as it is written, “Let the one who boasts, boast in the Lord.”

Lesson:

The Word of God is truly amazing for it anticipates that those who are given such surpassing gifts in the last days are likely to be conceited and this experience of Paul serves as a warning.  I see it as a comfort as well that when one encounters such trial will readily call to mind this experience of Paul and realizes God is in control and His power is made perfect in weakness and not strength in the surpassing gifts.

Postscript (12 March 2024) :

John MacArthur in his handbook mentioned,”Paul’s use of the word messenger (Greek, angellos, or angel) from Satan suggests the thorn in the flesh…was a demon, not a physical illness.  Of the 188 uses of the Greek word angellos in the NT, at least 180 refer to angels.  This particular angel was from Satan, a demon afflicting Paul.  Perhaps the best explanation for this demon is that he was indwelling the ringleader of the Corinthian conspiracy, the leader of the false apostles.  Through them he was tearing apart Paul’s beloved church and thus driving a painful stake through Paul.  Added support for this view comes from the context of chapters 10-13, in which Paul engages his enemies…The verb translated “buffet” always refer to ill treatment from other people (Matt 26:67; Mk 14:65; 1 Cor 4:11; 1 Pet 2:20).  Finally the OT frequently describes Israel’s enemies as thorns (Num 33:55; Josh 23:13; Ezek 28:24). ”

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How Do We Await The Return Of Our Lord ?

After sharing about the signs of the end times in the Olivet Discourse in most part of chapter 24 in the gospel of Matthew came 4 parables in close sequence – the parable of the wise and wicked servants, the parable of the wise and foolish bridesmaids, the parable of the talents and the parable of the sheep and goats –  in which our Lord shared about the importance of faithfulness while eagerly awaiting His Second Coming.  The sheer number of 4 parables underscored how important is the message of awaiting watchfully and faithfully.

The parable of the wise and wicked servants and the parable of the wise and foolish bridesmaids gave contrasting attitude in awaiting His return.  The wicked servant did not believe the Master would return so soon and was slack in discharging his given responsibility and was evil in conduct as well;  while the foolish bridesmaids believed the Bridegroom would return very soon so they were careless not to bring extra oil for their lamps not expecting a delay.

Though our Lord gave frightening account of events preceding His return, He also exhorted us not to be alarmed and be troubled.  Matt 24:6.

In the parables of the wise and wicked servants, the talents and the sheep and goats, the main lesson to be learnt was to be faithfully discharging our responsibilities to care for God’s people conscientiously while we wait with an expectant heart and watchfulness.

The parables are not teaching that salvation is obtained through works.   But faithfulness in conscientious works will definitely accompany genuine faith.   The wicked servant,  the servant entrusted with one talent and the goats did not have genuine faith as evidenced by their lack of faithfulness and the utter folly of completely ignoring the commands of their Lord.   In all 4 parables, the fate of such unfaithful servants was banishment to a place where there is weeping and gnashing of teeth.

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Faith Without Works (In Line With Repentance) Is Dead

Luke 19:1-11

Jesus entered Jericho and was passing through. A man was there by the name of Zacchaeus; he was a chief tax collector and was wealthy. He wanted to see who Jesus was, but because he was short he could not see over the crowd. So he ran ahead and climbed a sycamore-fig tree to see him, since Jesus was coming that way. When Jesus reached the spot, he looked up and said to him, “Zacchaeus, come down immediately. I must stay at your house today.” So he came down at once and welcomed him gladly. All the people saw this and began to mutter, “He has gone to be the guest of a sinner.”But Zacchaeus stood up and said to the Lord, “Look, Lord! Here and now I give half of my possessions to the poor, and if I have cheated anybody out of anything, I will pay back four times the amount.” Jesus said to him, “Today salvation has come to this house, because this man, too, is a son of Abraham. For the Son of Man came to seek and to save the lost.”

Zacchaeus was an excellent example of a repentant rich man.  This story was not proving that he earned salvation through his faith-works,  but rather his faith-work demonstrated that he fully comprehended the Kingdom of God and her values and repented.  His repentant faith with fruit or faith-work in line with repentance was really swift and salvation had come to him.  Jesus acknowledged him to be a son of Abraham in having true faith.

The rich young ruler’s response in Luke 18:15-30 was just the opposite of Zacchaeus’s.  He understood what the Kingdom of God entailed,  but he was not willing to repent and walked away sadly.  It would be futile for him just to have a change of mind and not of the heart as evidenced in the fact that he could not make that faith-work of renouncing all his possessions.

I believe the Scripture intended to show the contrasting responses to the Kingdom of God one after another consecutively in Luke 18 and 19 so that we may know we can only enter the Kingdom of God with the right response of true saving faith in our hearts with faith-work or fruit in line with repentance.

With the right response of repentant faith,  Zacchaeus’ name is written in the Book of life but not the un-named rich young ruler.

Faith without works (in line with repentance) is dead.   (Luke 3:8).

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